Thursday, October 22, 2009

Current Races: NJ-Gov

In regards to the Virginia situation, the opposite is happening in New Jersey. The democrat is current Governor Jon Corzine and the republican candidate is US Attorney Chris Christie. Also, with Chris Daggett as an independent candidate. This has been a very interesting race. Its started with a continuing, commanding lead for Christie, but after a bunch of questionable situations, Christie has slowly but surely gone to either being behind Gov. Corzine or a point ahead. The last three polls done of this race has had a 2:1 for Gov. Corzine. First, Rutgers-Eagleton:

Gov. Corzine......... 39%
US Att. Christie.... 36%
Indie Daggett........ 20%

Second, SurveyUSA:

Gov. Corzine......... 39%
US Att. Christie.... 41%
Indie Daggett........ 19%


Gov. Corzine......... 42%
US Att. Christie.... 39%
Indie Daggett........ 13%

It seems to me that reason for this movement in Gov. Corzine's way, is not because of Corzine but because of Daggett. After the questionable situations of Mr. Christie, his support is fading with the gop as well as the independents who don't like Corzine. Another possibility is the simple fact that, New Jersey is a very strong Democratic state; and at the beginning of the year most people were not paying attention. Now they are and the Corzine campaign is consolidating it's base. Whether this is the case, I'm not sure. I personally think the Daggett situation is more in-line with what is happening. I feel he is splitting the anti-Corzine vote with Mr. Christie, and therefore will, in the end, lead to a Corzine win.

Guru Prediction: Slight DEM retain.

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