The "Governator" Arnold has been disastrous for Cali. Luckily for them, they get to choose another person to fill his spot. On the dem side there are 2; AG and former Gov Jerry Brown and San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom. And on the other side we have failed business woman Meg Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. AG Jerry Brown is still very popular and left the governor's office with a positive rating. He is strongly favored to win the primary and the general. The gop candidates are flawed all around. Steve isn't very popular and with Meg's voting record and donations to Sen. Boxer, haven't impressed anyone. The only thing going for Ms. Whitman is her money. Here is the most recent poll for the race from republican friendly Rasmussen...
Jerry Brown.............. 44%
Meg Whitman........... 35%
Jerry Brown............. 45%
Steve Poizner........... 32%
Up against Gavin Newsom, it gets competitive...
Gavin Newsom.......... 36%
Meg Whitman............ 41%
Gavin Newsom.......... 36%
Steve Poizner............. 40%
Brown is leading in the primary against Newsom, as is the case with Whitman. I personally support Newsom and believe that either him or Brown would win the general due to the democratic slight of the state. Right now it seems that it is just a general opinion of the state. Jerry Brown is our best bet based on his history with the state, but I personally think that Gavin would win in a general.
Guru Supports: Gavin Newsom for California
Guru Prediction: lean DEM pickup
CO:
Incumbent Governor Bill Ritter, has done a lot to make enemies of friends. Former Rep. Scott McInnis is in the race and Josh Penry. With the gains the dems have been making in this state there is evidence that its slowing down. The most recent poll is from PPP...
Bill Ritter........... 38%
Scott McInnis.... 46%
Bill Ritter........... 40%
Josh Penry......... 40%
In both scenarios we see Ritter struggling, more so with McInnis. McInnis is currently leading his primary against Penry. I'll Have to see more polling before I make a solid prediction, but it's not looking good.
Guru Supports: Bill Ritter for Colorado
Guru Prediction: complete Toss-up
CT:
Governor Jodi Rell has not come out with whether she will run for reelection or not. Recent fundraising has caught peoples eyes, but its all rumors. Ms. Rell is popular and would probably win if she runs for reelection. There ia a little scandal starting to creep up. However with the state being a democratic hold, the seat would immediately be dem favored if she didn't. Lets look at the candidates; Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy and current SOS Susan Bysiewicz and former St. House Majority leader Jim Amann. They are all running whether Rell is or not. I have not seen any polling on this race to date. I would say that this early in the game I am going to have to go with someone who has won statewide, Susan. But Malloy is very appealing. I await with anticipation, until than I have no predictions.
FL:
Current tanned governor Charlie Crist has opted to run for the US senate seat being vacated by the joke Mel Martinez. Just a side, I worked my ass off for Betty Castor, Mel Martinez is a disgrace and will NOT be missed in the slightest! That being said, we truly have a great chance at picking up this seat. This is my favorites this cycle because I live in Tampa, FL. The candidates for the GOP are currently only AG Bill McCollum. He may face a tough primary against an up and coming St. Sen. Paula Dockery, which should be very fun and interesting. State CFO Alex Sink is the only dem in the race, and all the states democrats are fulling supporting her. The most recent poll done is from Quinnipiac...
Alex Sink........... 32%
Bill McCollum... 36%
There is also one out from Rasmussen...
Alex Sink.............. 35%
Bill McCollum..... 46%
In these situations it seems more and more that name recognition is what is driving the polls right now. The past two quarters has seen Sink raising more than career politician McCollum. Also, many of the traditional GOP contributors are moving to Sink, because of her history in the business sector as CEO of Florida Bank of America. Mr. Bill-O has been in FL politics since 83. He ran for the senate and lost in 2000 against lackluster Sen. Bill Nelson. He ran again in 2004, but lost to the joke also known as Mel Martinez; in the gop primary. He finally won one in 2006 for the Attorney Generals office against a very flawed dem. I think once people start hearing more about Sink they will go to her in the end. So as of now, its a toss-up, but I do see this moving to a slight dem pickup.
Guru (proudly) Supports: Alex Sink for Florida
Guru Prediction: Toss-Up but changing with time ;)
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