Incumbent Governor Sean Parnell has high approval ratings. So far, the only candidates in the race are former St. Sen. and 2008 US Rep. candidate Ethan Berkowitz, Hollis French, and Bob Poe. The only polling I have seen of this race is from Global Strategy Group...
Sean Parnell............... 41%
Ethan Berkowitz........ 40%
There is no more general match ups and no primary matches. This poll was done on June 14-18 2009. So, it should be interesting to see where the polls are now. I personally feel like Ethan is the best chance for a pick up. He is well known and fairly popular. But this is Alaska, and Parnell is popular. So I have to give a slight lean in the GOP direction.
Guru Supports: Ethan Bertowitz for Alaska
Guru Prediction: Slight GOP Toss-up
AZ:
Incumbent governor Jan Brewer is extremely unpopular. So far the only democrat rumored to be interested in the race is AG Terry Goddard. He is listed on the DNG website as their candidate, but may just be a way to show everyone they support him. There are rumors of a primary fight against Ms. Brewer, with former Gov. Fife Symington; who was arrested out of office in 1997 for corruption. His conviction was later overturned in appeals, and Pres. Clinton pardoned him in 2000.
The most recent poll was from Rasmussen...
Terry Goddard.............. 42%
Jan Brewer.................... 35%
Terry Goddard............. 44%
Fife Symington............ 37%
In both these scenarios we see relatively the same result, a Goddard win. Goddard has a 54/34 approval, so this is probably the reason he is ahead as of now. I haven't seen much polling on a primary race for Brewer, but I'm sure it's not good.
Guru supports: Terry Goddard for Arizona
Guru Prediction: Lean DEM pickup
AR:
Incumbent Governor Mike Beebe, is insanely popular! And as of now sits pretty with no opposition!
Guru Supports: Mike Beebe for Arkansas
Guru Prediction: Strong DEM retain
AL:
This is an open seat. The 2 dems running are US Rep. Arthur Davis and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. There is a long GOP list but its top, is Bradley Byrne. The most recent general shows a very tight race...
Bradley Byrne............ 39%
Arthur Davis.............. 35%
Bradley Byrne............ 41%
Ron Sparks................. 27%
This poll was done back in July and I haven't seen any new polling on the race. Davis and Byrne are both leading their primaries. I have to say that I like both Davis and Sparks. I was highly supportive of Sparks running for the senate last year, and was disappointed he didn't. But this early I think Davis is our best shot. Plus it would be great to see an african-american southern governor. The general is going to be tough; but I think with the right candidate we can win. Both guys are the right candidate, Sparks having won statewide before would seem stronger; however thats not what is showing. Alabama is a strong GOP state, so I would have to give the advantage to them in the general; but things could get very interesting!
Guru Supports: Arthur Davis for Alabama
Guru Prediction: Slight GOP retain
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