Yet another scandal is brewing for Christie... NJ-Gov

Daily kos has the story.... I'll be on later to finish my race analysts.

2010 Races: Analysis pt. 2

CA:

The "Governator" Arnold has been disastrous for Cali. Luckily for them, they get to choose another person to fill his spot. On the dem side there are 2; AG and former Gov Jerry Brown and San Fran Mayor Gavin Newsom. And on the other side we have failed business woman Meg Whitman and Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner. AG Jerry Brown is still very popular and left the governor's office with a positive rating. He is strongly favored to win the primary and the general. The gop candidates are flawed all around. Steve isn't very popular and with Meg's voting record and donations to Sen. Boxer, haven't impressed anyone. The only thing going for Ms. Whitman is her money. Here is the most recent poll for the race from republican friendly Rasmussen...

Jerry Brown.............. 44%

Meg Whitman........... 35%

Jerry Brown............. 45%

Steve Poizner........... 32%

Up against Gavin Newsom, it gets competitive...

Gavin Newsom.......... 36%

Meg Whitman............ 41%

Gavin Newsom.......... 36%

Steve Poizner............. 40%

Brown is leading in the primary against Newsom, as is the case with Whitman. I personally support Newsom and believe that either him or Brown would win the general due to the democratic slight of the state. Right now it seems that it is just a general opinion of the state. Jerry Brown is our best bet based on his history with the state, but I personally think that Gavin would win in a general.

Guru Supports: Gavin Newsom for California

Guru Prediction: lean DEM pickup

CO:

Incumbent Governor Bill Ritter, has done a lot to make enemies of friends. Former Rep. Scott McInnis is in the race and Josh Penry. With the gains the dems have been making in this state there is evidence that its slowing down. The most recent poll is from PPP...

Bill Ritter........... 38%

Scott McInnis.... 46%

Bill Ritter........... 40%

Josh Penry......... 40%

In both scenarios we see Ritter struggling, more so with McInnis. McInnis is currently leading his primary against Penry. I'll Have to see more polling before I make a solid prediction, but it's not looking good.

Guru Supports: Bill Ritter for Colorado

Guru Prediction: complete Toss-up

CT:

Governor Jodi Rell has not come out with whether she will run for reelection or not. Recent fundraising has caught peoples eyes, but its all rumors. Ms. Rell is popular and would probably win if she runs for reelection. There ia a little scandal starting to creep up. However with the state being a democratic hold, the seat would immediately be dem favored if she didn't. Lets look at the candidates; Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy and current SOS Susan Bysiewicz and former St. House Majority leader Jim Amann. They are all running whether Rell is or not. I have not seen any polling on this race to date. I would say that this early in the game I am going to have to go with someone who has won statewide, Susan. But Malloy is very appealing. I await with anticipation, until than I have no predictions.

FL:

Current tanned governor Charlie Crist has opted to run for the US senate seat being vacated by the joke Mel Martinez. Just a side, I worked my ass off for Betty Castor, Mel Martinez is a disgrace and will NOT be missed in the slightest! That being said, we truly have a great chance at picking up this seat. This is my favorites this cycle because I live in Tampa, FL. The candidates for the GOP are currently only AG Bill McCollum. He may face a tough primary against an up and coming St. Sen. Paula Dockery, which should be very fun and interesting. State CFO Alex Sink is the only dem in the race, and all the states democrats are fulling supporting her. The most recent poll done is from Quinnipiac...

Alex Sink........... 32%

Bill McCollum... 36%

There is also one out from Rasmussen...

Alex Sink.............. 35%

Bill McCollum..... 46%

In these situations it seems more and more that name recognition is what is driving the polls right now. The past two quarters has seen Sink raising more than career politician McCollum. Also, many of the traditional GOP contributors are moving to Sink, because of her history in the business sector as CEO of Florida Bank of America. Mr. Bill-O has been in FL politics since 83. He ran for the senate and lost in 2000 against lackluster Sen. Bill Nelson. He ran again in 2004, but lost to the joke also known as Mel Martinez; in the gop primary. He finally won one in 2006 for the Attorney Generals office against a very flawed dem. I think once people start hearing more about Sink they will go to her in the end. So as of now, its a toss-up, but I do see this moving to a slight dem pickup.

Guru (proudly) Supports: Alex Sink for Florida

Guru Prediction: Toss-Up but changing with time ;)

2010 Races: Analysis

AK:

Incumbent Governor Sean Parnell has high approval ratings. So far, the only candidates in the race are former St. Sen. and 2008 US Rep. candidate Ethan Berkowitz, Hollis French, and Bob Poe. The only polling I have seen of this race is from Global Strategy Group...

Sean Parnell............... 41%

Ethan Berkowitz........ 40%

There is no more general match ups and no primary matches. This poll was done on June 14-18 2009. So, it should be interesting to see where the polls are now. I personally feel like Ethan is the best chance for a pick up. He is well known and fairly popular. But this is Alaska, and Parnell is popular. So I have to give a slight lean in the GOP direction.

Guru Supports: Ethan Bertowitz for Alaska

Guru Prediction: Slight GOP Toss-up

AZ:

Incumbent governor Jan Brewer is extremely unpopular. So far the only democrat rumored to be interested in the race is AG Terry Goddard. He is listed on the DNG website as their candidate, but may just be a way to show everyone they support him. There are rumors of a primary fight against Ms. Brewer, with former Gov. Fife Symington; who was arrested out of office in 1997 for corruption. His conviction was later overturned in appeals, and Pres. Clinton pardoned him in 2000.

The most recent poll was from Rasmussen...

Terry Goddard.............. 42%

Jan Brewer.................... 35%

Terry Goddard............. 44%

Fife Symington............ 37%

In both these scenarios we see relatively the same result, a Goddard win. Goddard has a 54/34 approval, so this is probably the reason he is ahead as of now. I haven't seen much polling on a primary race for Brewer, but I'm sure it's not good.

Guru supports: Terry Goddard for Arizona

Guru Prediction: Lean DEM pickup

AR:

Incumbent Governor Mike Beebe, is insanely popular! And as of now sits pretty with no opposition!

Guru Supports: Mike Beebe for Arkansas

Guru Prediction: Strong DEM retain

AL:

This is an open seat. The 2 dems running are US Rep. Arthur Davis and Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks. There is a long GOP list but its top, is Bradley Byrne. The most recent general shows a very tight race...

Bradley Byrne............ 39%

Arthur Davis.............. 35%

Bradley Byrne............ 41%

Ron Sparks................. 27%

This poll was done back in July and I haven't seen any new polling on the race. Davis and Byrne are both leading their primaries. I have to say that I like both Davis and Sparks. I was highly supportive of Sparks running for the senate last year, and was disappointed he didn't. But this early I think Davis is our best shot. Plus it would be great to see an african-american southern governor. The general is going to be tough; but I think with the right candidate we can win. Both guys are the right candidate, Sparks having won statewide before would seem stronger; however thats not what is showing. Alabama is a strong GOP state, so I would have to give the advantage to them in the general; but things could get very interesting!

Guru Supports: Arthur Davis for Alabama

Guru Prediction: Slight GOP retain

Morning everyone!

Hello, just a quick post. I have to head to pick up more furniture from my grandmother's house in Lakeland. I'll be back later with my posts!

Approval ratings for Governors up for reelection in 2010 part 3

NJ:

Jon Corzine:

approval.......... 38%

disapproval..... 50%

NY:

David Paterson:

approval.......... 30%

disapproval..... 57%

OH:

Ted Strickland:

approval......... 46%

disapproval.... 42%

TX:

Rick Perry:

Surprisingly, I cannot find a recent approval rating for Perry. He is having a strong primary challenge for Sen. Kay B. Hutchinson, and the polls have them at a toss-up. Either one would be considered the favorite in the general election.

UT:

Gary Herbert:

Due to his inauguration date, Aug 11th 2009; no polls have been done yet. He is up for the special election in 2010; due to former Gov. Jon Huntsman becoming Ambassador to China. Utah is uber-conservative so there is little doubt of Gov. Herbert losing.

Tomorrow I will be doing a small review of the candidates running in these races and who I support, and where they stand in the polls. Also, I will be looking at the open seat races in AL, CA, FL, GA, HI, ID, KS, ME, MI, MN, MS, NM, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, VT, WV, WI, WY. As is before, I will be looking at each and announcing my support for the candidate I think is our best option.

Approval ratings for Governors up for reelection in 2010 part 2

IA:

Chet Culver:

approval.......... 41%

disapproval..... 49%

MD:

Martin O'Malley:

approval........ 48%

disapproval... 37%

MA:

Deval Patrick:

approval........ 45%

disapproval... 49%

NE:

Dave Heinemen:

This was the only race I could not find recent polling on. Gov. Heinemen is expected to win reelection without any serious competition.

NV:

Jim Gibbons:

approval......... 10%

disapproval.... 87%

NH:

John Lynch:

approval......... 66%

disapproval.... 23%

Approval ratings for Governors up for reelection in 2010 part 1

AK:

Sean Parnell:

approval............. 81%

disapproval........ 16%

AZ:

Jan Brewer:

approval.............. 22%

disapproval........ 75%

AR:

Mike Beebe:

approval............. 78%

disapproval........ 15%

CO:

Bill Ritter:

approval............ 45%

disapproval....... 47%

CT:

Jodi Rell:

approval........... 56%

disapproval...... 34%

ID:

Butch Otter

approval........... 47%

disapproval...... 35%

IL:

Pat Quinn:

approval............ 45%

disapproval....... 53%